Brexit24

Keep Calm and Carry On Brexitting

Theresa May continues with “business as normal” this morning, despite the High Court ruling yesterday that it would be illegal for her to invoke Article 50 “no later than” the end of March 2017.

The Prime Minister’s optimism apparently knows no bounds.

She was of course the one responsible, as Home Secretary, for the promise to bring immigration down to the “tens of thousands” when the real numbers were ten times that. Her enthusiasm for business as normal wasn’t shared by many this morning

Lady Patience Wheatcroft, a Conservative peer said

I think it is only right to delay triggering article 50 until we have a clearer idea of what it actually entails. And I think there will be others in the Lords who feel the same way.

How many I think it is hard to say, but I think there could be a majority who would be in favour of delaying article 50 until we know a little more about what lies ahead.

Lady Patience Wheatcroft, Conservative
Jesse Norman, junior minister at the Department of Industry was also critical tweeting

Whatever one thinks of the Art 50 judgement, it is a reminder that we live in a parliamentary and not a popular democracy and whatever people’s views on Brexit, judicial independence is absolutely fundamental to democracy and the rule of law.

Jesse Norman, Junior Minister Department of Industry

The Prime Minister is now embarked on the “big blind”. She spent time today reassuring Jean-Claude Juncker and Angela Merkel that the UK would deliver it’s Article 50 note on schedule before the end of March 2017.

A snap election?

Even the most positive spin on the Government’s decision to appeal the ruling, puts them in court in mid-November.

The decision on parliamentary prerogative goes beyond the Article 50 debate, it will set precedent on courses for the remainder of British history. The Supreme Court will not be able to publish it’s decision before January 2017 – just eight weeks or so before Mrs May intends to “carry on and brexit”.

If the Supreme Court found against the claimants (Gina Miller, The People’s Challenge etc), they would have the right to take their case to the European Court of Justice – which is politically even more explosive than what happened yesterday. The Daily Mail would love to print a headline on the lines of “EU Judges to decide if UK can leave”.

The Lady is not for turning

We’ve already seen that Theresa May is not a fan of going back on a decision once taken, but despite the constricts of the fixed-term Parliaments Act (created by David Cameron), she may well be tempted to call a snap election and force the issue.

On current polls, Mrs May would win a landslide majority (thanks primarily to Jeremy Corbyn being the main alternative candidate). If she does call an election, Brexit24 believes we will see the creation of a cross-party coalition on the fault-line of Brexit which really would be destabilising.

 

 

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